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Op-Ed

Nigeria’s elections shift could spook the market

There could be a lull in the equities, money and forex markets

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A woman checks her name in voting lists at the State INEC Office in Jimeta - AFP

It is no longer news that The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has postponed to February 23rd, the General election earlier scheduled for Saturday, February 16th, 2019. This does not entirely come as a surprise as there had been speculations about the possible suspension of the elections due to issues relating to the distribution and collection of Permanent Voters Cards (PVC) and the readiness of INEC.

It would have surprised many onlookers at the general calm around the Nigerian capital market, weeks and even days to the February 16th general elections. While the general volume of trade declined across markets, due to the large sense of uncertainty in the air; the general disposition wasn’t Negative towards the economy from investors. For instance, February 15th, the day which was meant to be the eve of the now postponed elections, saw the Nigerian Stock Exchange trading session end on a positive note. The All Share Index closed at 32,715.20 basis points, up 0.81%, while the year to date, the index was up 4.09%.

The analysis and predictions across investments houses across the world have been less alarmist than those running up to the 2015 general elections. As a matter of fact, the discussions have been around how much of a rally the markets would experience depending on who won the presidential elections.

This could be instructive as investors seem to have a bit more confidence in the Nigerian democratic process, which showed after the 2015 elections. In 2014/15, over a 3 month period before the election, the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) lost 8.40% of its worth, only to regain 8.4% in a single day after the election. In apparent reaction to the successful conclusion of the Presidential election with the announcement of Buhari as winner by INEC, market capitalisation jumped by N903.435 billion or 8.42%. Capitalisation closed at a new high of N11.62 trillion, while the All-Share index similarly rose by 2,635 basis points or 8.30%, the most among 93 global indices tracked by Bloomberg.

The postponement however presents a new challenge, if the 2015 scenario is to replay itself, as the market hit 7 straight days of losses right after the postponement, taking the index to a two year low and into territories that had not been seen since January 2013. Arguably, the NSE-ASI had already been hit by pre-election jitters but the sell-offs after the postponement in 2015 was substantial.

In 2019, the election shift is unlikely to help market sentiments as the least to be expected, is a hold off on significant market activity.  It will raise a few concerns that might create a lull in the equities, money and forex markets. With the real reality of moving from concern to panic and even self-preservation mood which could then lead to a flight-safety stance by investors.

The performance on the Nigerian Market in recent times has no doubt shown us that the nexus between politics and the economy of a nation is so strong and interwoven to the extent that political decisions taken usually do have far reaching consequences on the economy, and no time more than an election period. 

The small respite in all of this, is that the postponement was just for a week and the presidential and National Assembly elections will now hold on February 23, 2019. Investors and stakeholders can hold their breaths, hoping that there will be no further changes; because another could lead to serious implications for the economy.

The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect News Central’s editorial stance.


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Op-Ed

Wanna meet your match?

Here are some recommendations that could come in handy when you go makeup shopping, unsupervised

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Wanna Meet Your match? Use These Unbeatable Tips | News Central TV
Photo credit: House of Tara International

One of the most difficult things for women when getting their makeup done by themselves is getting their foundation shades right.

Most times, the shade appears correct but the texture is all wrong, leaving them with a ‘cakey’ finish or simply a dripping hot mess! Sometimes, it oxidizes during the day and leaves an ashy shade.

It’s almost like we never win!

Well, we spoke to some makeup artists to get tips that would save you from this recurring facial misadventure.

5 Best Makeup Tips

Here are some recommendations that could come in handy when you go makeup shopping, unsupervised.

1. Know your skin type

Wanna Meet Your match? Use These Unbeatable Tips | News Central TV
Photo credit: House of Tara

Sometimes, your skin can be oily, dry or a combination of both. Whilst knowing your skin type will not automatically help you pick your right shade, it would help you know the right foundation type for you.

To narrow down your options:

  • Choose cream or stick foundation if you have dry skin
  • Choose a matte finish or oil-free liquid or powder foundation if you have oily skin.
  • Choose a powder foundation if you have combination skin
  • Choose a foundation that offers full or medium coverage if you have an uneven complexion and want to cover most of your skin

2. Test under natural light

Find a door or window to see how the foundation holds up in daylight.

Sometimes, what you see isn’t always what you get.

3. Test before buying

Wanna Meet Your match? Use These Unbeatable Tips | News Central TV
Photo credit: House of Tara

Choose the foundation shade that looks closest to your skin tone. Test by swathing on your jawline (it is the closest to your natural tone and would show you better how the foundation matches against your neck).

The idea here is to find one that blends in perfectly, not one that you can easily see.

The best foundation will disappear into your skin and provide an even canvas for your other makeup application.

4. If it’s broken (or wrong), fix it

Some of us have multiple bottles of wrong shades of foundation- too light or too dark. Don’t throw them away because you now know the shade is wrong. Fix it and use it!

When it is too light, customize to get your right shade by mixing the foundation with a darker shade of concealer, foundation or powder.

When it is too dark, mix with a lighter shade.

5. Choose a Beauty Store that has artists or beauty experts

They would help you narrow down your options and even teach you some cool tricks.

Some helpful tips:

  • Change makeup sponges regularly if you use them to apply foundation because they can harbour germs and bacteria.
  • Always remove makeup and apply moisturizer before bed. Your skin will repair itself when you sleep.
Wanna Meet Your match? Use These Unbeatable Tips | News Central TV
Photo credit: House of Tara

There are over 21 shades of foundation and 15 shades of powder to choose between.

Hopefully, with our tips and tricks, you would find your match in this mix and maze of shades.

Now you never have to use your face as a permanent testing ground. Find your match and make your move.

The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect News Central TV’s editorial stance.

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All rights reserved. This post and other digital content on this website may not be reproduced, published, broadcasted, rewritten or redistributed in whole or in part without prior express written permission from News Central.

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Op-Ed

Nigeria’s economy: Preview of the week ahead

This week’s major risk event will be Thursday’s annual meeting at Wyoming where leaders from major central banks gather

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Nigeria's economy: Preview of the week ahead | News Central TV
(File photo)

Lingering concerns over a global recession will continue influencing market sentiment in the week ahead, with world equities, emerging markets and riskier currencies in the direct firing line.

Although treasury yields are recovering from record lows, the movements in bond markets are poised to be closely monitored by investors.

In Nigeria, there will be a strong focus on the second-quarter GDP report which should provide fresh insight into the health of the Nigerian economy.

A disappointing figure is seen fuelling expectations over the Central Bank of Nigeria cutting interest rates. Markets are predicting growth of 1.8% during the second quarter of 2019.

READ: Will oil prices help or harm Nigeria’s economy in Q3?

Across the Atlantic, Dollar traders will be closely looking at July’s FOMC minutes for clues on the future pace of rate cuts. Market expectations over a September rate should rise if the minutes are presented with a dovish touch.

However, some are still questioning whether the Fed will move forward with further rate cuts given how US retail sales grew 0.7% in July and the latest job report suggested moderate growth. 

This week’s major risk event will be Thursday’s annual meeting at Wyoming where leaders from major central banks gather. If major central banks express a readiness to cut interest rates further and implement new quantitative easing programs, the mood across markets has the potential to improve.

READ: Gold: Positioned to thrive in low-interest-rate environment

Appetite towards Gold will be influenced by trade developments, the Dollar’s valuation and global growth concerns. The precious metal could still hit $1550 once bulls can secure control above $1530.

The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect News Central TV’s editorial stance.

Copyright News Central

All rights reserved. This post and other digital content on this website may not be reproduced, published, broadcasted, rewritten or redistributed in whole or in part without prior express written permission from News Central.

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Op-Ed

Gold: Positioned to thrive in low-interest-rate environment

Rising concerns surrounding the health of the global economy is another one of the engines that will help drive Gold prices

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Gold: Positioned to thrive in low-interest-rate environment

The investment case for Gold is set to remain robust as speculation mounts that major central banks will ease monetary policy in an effort to counter a global economic downturn.

The yellow metal shone with extreme intensity during the second quarter of 2019, rallying roughly 9 per cent to levels not seen above $1,435 in over six years, thanks to an environment that included ongoing global growth concerns, geo-politics, trade tensions and Dollar weakness.

Weak macro data, which reflects downward revisions in global growth over the past 12 months, is prompting a handful of central banks including the European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Reserve (Fed) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to signal a willingness to ease monetary policy and increase economic stimulus to support growth.

In a low-interest-rate environment filled with chronic uncertainty, Gold can climb another 5 per cent over the course of Q3 – claiming the title as one of the high flyers among safe-haven assets, in competition with the Yen. 

Will Gold’s fortunes hang on the Fed’s actions?

Will Gold’s fortunes hang on the Fed’s actions?

What investors need to watch as the second half of the trading year gets underway are the actions of the Federal Reserve. Will the US central bank confirm market expectations and cut interest rates as early as July? If it fails to do so, Gold risks rapidly surrendering its second-quarter surge.

Essentially, if the Fed sits on its hands beyond July, profits will be taken from the table on the $120+ rally that transpired in Gold throughout June. 

Unfavourable global conditions to keep Gold in fashion

Rising concerns surrounding the health of the global economy is another one of the engines that will help drive Gold prices.

Although a sense of optimism has returned after the Trump-Xi Jinping meeting at G20 ended in a trade truce on tariffs, it does not change the reality that global growth is decelerating.

The World Bank recently downgraded it’s 2019 world growth forecast to 2.6 per cent from 2.9 per cent and if the recent disappointing PMI releases across the manufacturing sectors in Europe, China and the United States are anything to go by, global growth is moving towards the lower bound of 2 per cent as the decade draws to a close.

Warning signals over potential cracks in the largest economy in the world, indications of tepid growth in the EU, disappointing data from China’s manufacturing sector and lacklustre growth in the United Kingdom amid Brexit-induced uncertainties are likely to sweeten appetite for safe-haven assets. 

It’s all about central bank stimulus and lower yields 

In the longer term, Gold should also find support from lower treasury yields, especially if the 10-year treasury dips below 2 per cent again as persistent growth fears and trade developments result in lower interest rates across the globe.

While the outlook for the precious metal points to the upside, potential roadblocks on the horizon include easing trade tensions and signs of global growth stabilizing. Both outcomes would pose a challenge to buyers.

What do higher Gold prices mean for African markets?

What do higher Gold prices mean for African markets?

Gold-producing nations on the continent, like South Africa and Ghana will certainly benefit from higher prices.

Economic conditions in Africa’s most industrialised economy remain unfavourable thanks to a tornado of domestic and external risks. Economic growth contracted by 3.2 per cent during the first quarter of 2019 thanks to a sharp decline in manufacturing, agriculture and mining.

Given how Gold remains one of South Africa’s most valuable exports, rising Gold prices have the potential to stimulate growth – especially when factoring in how exports account for roughly 30 per cent of GDP.

Economic growth in Ghana remains robust with GDP expanding 6.7 per cent during the first quarter of 2019. With Ghana claiming the title of Africa’s top Gold producer, higher prices will be supportive of the mining sector which expanded 20.9 per cent in Q1.

When adding to the fact that roughly 5.7 per cent of Ghana’s GDP and 40 per cent of gross foreign earnings are acquired from the mining sector, Gold’s bullish outlook brightens Ghana’s growth prospects.

Gold bulls to dream big and reach for the stars 

Taking a look at the technical picture, Gold remains firmly bullish on the monthly charts as there have been consistent higher highs and higher lows.

Prices have scope to push higher on the monthly charts should $1360 prove to be reliable support.

For as long as bulls are able to defend $1360, there should be enough confidence to challenge $1430 and $1500 – a level not seen since April 2013. Alternatively, a decline back below $1360 will most likely swing open the doors towards $1324 and $1300, respectively.

This bullish setup becomes invalidated if prices find comfort below $1300.

The views expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect News Central TV’s editorial stance.

Copyright News Central

All rights reserved. This post and other digital content on this website may not be reproduced, published, broadcasted, rewritten or redistributed in whole or in part without prior express written permission from News Central.

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